![]() Since F is fixed, the higher the value of P, the less chance for a Pokemon to flee before you can catch it. One takeaway from the geometric sum is it depends on the ratio of P and F. This is a geometric series with ratio of (1-P)(1-F), whose sum is: ![]() Then the probability of catching the pokemon is: Let's say the probability that you catch the Pokemon with an individual throw is P given by GUCT, and the flee rate F. In the end, you might want to know the average probability of catching a Pokemon, if you keep throwing Poke Balls until the Pokemon is caught or flees. But if you didn't have a 100% catch chance with a Poke Ball, you will never reach exactly 100% no matter what bonuses you have. So bonuses will definitely increase your catch rate. Since Multipliers is determined by which bonuses are used, this means that: Applying any kind of bonus effectively gives you the chance to throw more than one Poke Ball per try. $$Probability= 1- \left(1-\frac$$Ĭheck it out: If Multipliers=2, then the equation equals the chance that you don't fail twice in a row with a Poke Ball catch. If that number is lower than the value given by the equation, you caught the Pokemon! Since this equation (after much work) includes every catch bonus, we call it the Grand Unified Catch Theory (GUCT): To check if a Pokemon is caught, the game generates a random number between 0 and 1. Yessir! Here is the equation that determines catch probability. So if two players with different levels encounter the same Pokemon, they will have the same chances of catching it if it is at the same CP. Your chances don't depend directly on your trainer level.A 300 CP Metapod could be level 30, for example, and unexpectedly difficult to catch as result. Pokemon with low CP gain are often deceptively high level. Higher level Pokemon are harder to catch.So if the Pokemon breaks out, you have the same chances on the next throw. Catch probability doesn't depend on throw attempt.Razz Berries don't affect flee rate, only catch rate.The bonus for the circle size varies continuously with radius, so not all Great! throws give the same bonus to catch rate. ![]() In order to get the throw bonus, you have to land inside the colored target ring! Time your throw for the smallest target ring you can make consistently.Stack your bonuses. Ultra Ball is equal in catch probability to throwing two Poke Balls, but making an excellent curveball with Ultra Ball and Razz Berry is better than throwing ten Poke Balls in a row! Each bonus makes the previous bonuses worth more.Learning how to throw the curveball consistently will make the biggest difference to your game. A curved Poke Ball is stronger than a straight Great Ball and almost as strong as a straight Ultra Ball. ![]() Some interesting implications that follow: The key takeaway from our catch bonuses research is:Īpplying any kind of catch bonus effectively gives you the chance to throw more than one Poke Ball per try. A qualitative understanding will be more helpful than just dropping the catch probability equation. ![]()
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